Saturday, May 08, 2004


Syndicate Blip System (SBS)

I have devised a simple betting system that has so far yielded suprisingly positive results. Ok, I didn't come up with it from scratch. I blatantly stole the original rudimentary system from a certain someone who's deeply indebted to me and developed it further. Admittedly, I haven't kept any records but all predictions and results have been saved conveniently in my head. My boy C has served as my witness and as a benefactor of the system's rewards. Unfortunately, I haven't made a substantial amount from the system yet since I'm still doing time in Gambler's Anonymous.

Here's the gist of the system: Vegas oddsmakers initially "make a number" for a particular sporting event. This "number" represents a point spread (the number of points Team A will win over Team B) and the total (the total number of points both teams will score). These oddsmakers are not attempting to predict the actual spread one team will win over the other but instead the spread that will bring in equal money on both sides. The same applies to totals. When an uneven number of wagers are placed on one side oddsmakers will attempt to move the line in an attempt to bring in an equal amount on the other side.

The Syndicate Blip System (SBS) takes into account that there are certain "sharps" in the bettors world that have a distinct edge. This so-called edge comes through superior research, access to information the general public lacks, or in some cases, through certain refs or players in their pocket. In many cases all these factors apply. When these syndicates of sharps bet large on a game they effectively move the line. For example, one of today's MLB games as an example. Here's what the line looked like on scoresandodds.com.

905 COLORADO Jennings-R 8 8½ 9 9½ 10 9½

2:20

906 CHICAGO CUBS Maddux-R 270 260

We're going to ignore the Money Line odds on this contest for the sake of explaining SBS (although betting on COL would've been highly lucrative since COL ended up winning). We're only concerned with this game's total. The total initially opened at 8 and thoughout the day it subsequently incremented half points eventually to 10. We assume that syndicates were steadily pouring money on the OVER in an effort to "buy" more points. Suddenly, 20 to 30 minutes before the game's first pitch it suddenly moved back down to 9½. What happened? I believe that these sharp syndicates, after successfully buying the line up bet, or more appropriately, pounded even more money on the UNDER, which swayed the total back down half a point.

Oh yeah, the Rockies won this game 4-3.

The SB System relies on these last second "blips" to select its plays So far when this pattern is recognized, acknowledged, and mentally recorded (with my colleague as a witness), it has picked a suprising 90% of winners and has compiled a record of 9-1. Bow down.

Yeah yeah yeah, I know realizes there are numerous deficiences in my system but hey I had to perform informal tests before examining this further. The biggest question mark is accuracy of scoresandodds.com. How accurate are it's movements compared to actual line movements of casino and offshore sports books. We'll try to learn more about this.. and from this point on I'll be keeping solid records (possibly in this blog). werd.